Published Articles


  • “Dyadic representation in a Westminster system”, Legislative Studies Quarterly, 42(2):235-267 Abstract  pdf  journal
  • “Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste”, Journal of Politics, forthcoming Abstract  pdf


  • “Who Controls Opinion Content? Testing Theories of Authorship using Case-Specific Preference Estimates for the US Supreme Court”, Journal of Politics 78(4):1153-1169. Abstract  pdf  journal
  • “Partisan Disagreements Arising from Rationalization of Common Information”, Political Science Research and Methods Abstract  pdf  journal
  • “Measuring Political Positions from Legislative Speech”, Political Analysis 24(3):374-394 Abstract  pdf  journal
  • “Crowd-Sourced Text Analysis”, American Political Science Review, 110(2):278-295. Abstract  pdf  journal
  • “Simulating Counterfactual Representation”, Political Analysis 24(2):281-290 Abstract  pdf  journal
  • “ Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting ”, Electoral Studies 41: 239-243 Abstract  pdf  journal
  • “ Comparing Strategies for Estimating Constituency Opinion from National Survey Samples ”, Political Science Research and Methods. Abstract  pdf  journal


  • “Under-performing, Over-performing, or Just Performing? The Limitations of Fundamentals-based Presidential Election Forecasting”, International Journal of Forecasting, 31(3):965-979. Abstract  pdf  journal


  • “Scaling Meaningful Political Dimensions Using Texts and Votes”, American Journal of Political Science, 58(3)754-771. Abstract  pdf  journal
  • “A Partisan Gap in the Supply of Female Potential Candidates”, Research & Politics, 1:1. Abstract  pdf  journal


  • “Does Inattention to Political Debate Explain the Polarization Gap Between the U.S. Congress and Public?”, Public Opinion Quarterly, 77(S):2-23. Abstract  pdf  journal


  • “The Supreme Court’s Many Median Justices”, American Political Science Review, 106(4):847-866. Abstract  pdf  journal
  • “Compound Poisson-Gamma Regression Models for Dollar Outcomes That Are Sometimes Zero”, Political Analysis, 20(3):387-399. Abstract  pdf  journal
  • “The Genealogy of Law”, Political Analysis, 20(3):329-350. Abstract  pdf  journal


  • “Distinguishing Between Influences on Brazilian Legislative Behavior”, Legislative Studies Quarterly, 36(3)363-396. Abstract  pdf  journal


  • “Locating Supreme Court Opinions in Doctrine Space”, American Journal of Political Science 54(4):871-890. Abstract  pdf  journal
  • “Unpredictable Voters in Ideal Point Estimation”, Political Analysis 18(2):151-171. Abstract  pdf  journal


  • “Pass the Pork: Measuring Legislator Shares in Congress”, Political Analysis 16(3):235-249. Abstract  pdf  journal

Working Papers


  • “Decomposing Public Opinion Variation into Ideology, Idiosyncrasy and Instability” Abstract  pdf


  • “The Effects of Panel Assignment on the US Court of Appeals in Death Penalty Cases” Abstract
  • “Refugee Roulette Revisited: Judicial Preference Variation and Aggregation on the Swiss Federal Administrative Court 2007-2012” Abstract  pdf



  • “Report of the Inquiry into the 2015 British general election opinion polls”, London: Market Research Society and British Polling Council. Abstract  pdf  web

Retired Papers


  • “Legislator Characteristics, Constituency Characteristics, and Roll Call Voting” Abstract  pdf
  • “Recovering Vote by Race in Primary Elections” Abstract  pdf