Benjamin E Lauderdale, “Which outcome to the Article 50 process do the British people want?”

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This report contains a national and parliamentary constituency-level analysis of the British public’s preferences regarding the resolution of the current Article 50 withdrawal process from the European Union. The estimates provided here are based on the same modelling techniques that used in the YouGov 2017 UK General Election Model, which correctly predicted the hung parliament and 93% of individual seats. This approach allows us to not just calculate national support for different possible outcomes of the Brexit process, but to use demographic, geographic and political patterns in support for different parties across the UK to assess views in each parliamentary constituency. This report was prepared using polling data from 27 November to 6 December, in advance of the planned 11 December 2018 House of Commons vote on the deal negotiated and agreed by the UK government with the European Commission.


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