November 13, 2016

· forecasting

I am posting the slides and audio here from a talk I gave at the LSE about the election, one day before it happened. Some things in here are right, some things in here are wrong. The polling estimates I was talking about were the penultimate estimates posted at so the numbers there now are a bit different. Most of the value here post-election is the estimates of which kinds of voters were switching R to D and D to R versus 2012. A proper post-mortem on the estimates overall is coming, but needs to wait for the final vote counts, which may be a few weeks. Polling methodology problems have gone back to being non-pressing, as they usually are, so we can all wait.

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