December 17, 2019

· forecasting

The slide deck linked below reports an initial performance review for the YouGov MRP model of the 2019 UK general election. As I noted in a series of tweets the day after the election the overall performance was mixed. The headline Conservative seat prediction was too low (339 vs 365), but on many other metrics the model performed well, capturing many important features of how party vote shares changed across UK constituencies versus the previous election in 2017. I will be returning to this in the new year once sufficient data has been collected on reported vote to properly assess the details of any late swings.

Initial Performance Review of YouGov’s MRP for the 2019 UK General Election (pdf)

All Posts by Date · All Posts by Category