The slide deck linked below reports an initial performance review for the YouGov MRP model of the 2019 UK general election. As I noted in a series of tweets the day after the election the overall performance was mixed. The headline Conservative seat prediction was too low (339 vs 365), but on many other metrics the …
We describe a strategy for applying multilevel regression and post-stratication (MRP) methods to pre-election polling. Using a combination of contemporaneous polling, census data, past election polling, past election results, as well as other sources of information, we are able to construct probabilistic, internally …
I am posting the slides and audio here from a talk I gave at the LSE about the election, one day before it happened. Some things in here are right, some things in here are wrong. The polling estimates I was talking about were the penultimate estimates posted at https://today.yougov.com/us-election/ so the numbers there …
In the lead up to the UK referendum on EU membership, Doug Rivers and I posted an analysis of several weeks of YouGov polling data, using a methodology called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP). This is a different approach to analysing polling responses than the approach YouGov uses to analyse most of …