Categories ▸ Forecasting
I am posting the slides and audio here from a talk I gave at the LSE about the election, one day before it happened. Some things in here are right, some things in here are wrong. The polling estimates I was talking about were the penultimate estimates posted at https://today.yougov.com/us-election/ so the numbers there now are a bit different. Most of the value here post-election is the estimates of which kinds of voters were switching R to D and D to R versus 2012.
In the lead up to the UK referendum on EU membership, Doug Rivers and I posted an analysis of several weeks of YouGov polling data, using a methodology called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP). This is a different approach to analysing polling responses than the approach YouGov uses to analyse most of its UK polls, including those released immediately before and after the referendum on 23 June. The MRP approach, in addition to yielding several interesting findings that we discussed in that post on YouGov’s site regarding the interactions of age, educational qualifications, party and referendum vote, also aims to better correct for demographic imbalances in raw polling samples.
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