The slide deck linked below reports an initial performance review for the YouGov MRP model of the 2019 UK general election. As I noted in a series of tweets the day after the election the overall performance was mixed. The headline Conservative seat prediction was too low (339 vs 365), but on many other metrics the model performed well, capturing many important features of how party vote shares changed across UK constituencies versus the previous election in 2017.
I am posting the slides and audio here from a talk I gave at the LSE about the election, one day before it happened. Some things in here are right, some things in here are wrong. The polling estimates I was talking about were the penultimate estimates posted at https://today.yougov.com/us-election/ so the numbers there now are a bit different. Most of the value here post-election is the estimates of which kinds of voters were switching R to D and D to R versus 2012.
In the lead up to the UK referendum on EU membership, Doug Rivers and I posted an analysis of several weeks of YouGov polling data, using a methodology called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP). This is a different approach to analysing polling responses than the approach YouGov uses to analyse most of its UK polls, including those released immediately before and after the referendum on 23 June. The MRP approach, in addition to yielding several interesting findings that we discussed in that post on YouGov’s site regarding the interactions of age, educational qualifications, party and referendum vote, also aims to better correct for demographic imbalances in raw polling samples.
I am a Professor of Political Science at University College London. From 2011-2018 I was on the faculty at the London School of Economics. I have been a Senior Data Science Advisor to YouGov since 2016 and was previously an Associate Editor of the American Political Science Review (2016-2020). My research is focused on the measurement of political preferences from survey, voting, network and text data. Applications of these methods have included citizens, legislators and judges in the US, UK and EU.