2025

• “Inferring Individual Preferences from Group Decisions: Judicial Preference Variation and Aggregation in Asylum Appeals”, conditionally accepted British Journal of Political Science Abstract  preprint
• “Winning Votes and Changing Minds: Do Populist Arguments Affect Candidate Evaluations and Issue Preferences?”, conditionally accepted British Journal of Political Science Abstract  preprint

2025

• “Polarization over the Priority of Political Problems”, American Journal of Political Science Abstract  preprint  journal  data
• ““Moderates””, American Political Science Review Abstract  preprint  journal  data

2024

• “Liberals and Conservatives Rely on Very Similar Sets of Foundations When Comparing Moral Violations”, American Political Science Review Abstract  preprint  journal  data
• “The Effects of Party Labels on Vote Choice with Realistic Candidate Differentiation”, Political Science Research and Methods Abstract  preprint  journal  data
• “Public Preferences over Changes to the Composition of Government Tax Revenue”, British Journal of Political Science Abstract  preprint  journal  data
• “The Variable Persuasiveness of Political Rhetoric”, American Journal of Political Science Abstract  preprint  journal  data

2023

• “A Leader Who Sees the World as I Do: Voters Prefer Candidates Whose Statements Reveal Matching Social-Psychological Attitudes”, Political Pyschology Abstract  preprint  journal

2022

• “Pairwise Comparisons as a Scale Development Tool for Composite Measures”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society - Series A Abstract  preprint  journal
• “Measuring Attitudes towards Public Spending using a Multivariate Tax Summary Experiment”, American Journal of Political Science Abstract  preprint  journal  data

2021

• “Can Citizens Guess How Other Citizens Voted Based on Demographic Characteristics?”, Political Science Research and Methods Abstract  preprint  journal  data
• “Republican-Majority Appellate Panels Increase Execution Rates for Capital Defendants”, Journal of Politics Abstract  preprint  journal  data

2020

• “A Choice-Based Measure of Issue Importance in the Electorate”, American Journal of Political Science Abstract  preprint  journal  data

2019

• “Model-Based Pre-Election Polling for National and Sub-National Outcomes in the US and UK”, International Journal of Forecasting Abstract  preprint  journal

2018

• “Decomposing Public Opinion Variation into Ideology, Idiosyncrasy and Instability”, Journal of Politics Abstract  preprint  journal  data
• “Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste”, Journal of Politics Abstract  preprint  journal  data

2017

• “An assessment of the causes of the errors in the 2015 UK general election opinion polls”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A Abstract  journal
• “Dyadic representation in a Westminster system”, Legislative Studies Quarterly, 42(2):235-267 Abstract  preprint  journal  data

2016

• “Who Controls Opinion Content? Testing Theories of Authorship using Case-Specific Preference Estimates for the US Supreme Court”, Journal of Politics 78(4):1153-1169. Abstract  preprint  journal  data
• “Partisan Disagreements Arising from Rationalization of Common Information”, Political Science Research and Methods Abstract  preprint  journal  data
• “Measuring Political Positions from Legislative Speech”, Political Analysis 24(3):374-394 Abstract  preprint  journal  data
• “Crowd-Sourced Text Analysis”, American Political Science Review, 110(2):278-295. Abstract  preprint  journal  data
• “Simulating Counterfactual Representation”, Political Analysis 24(2):281-290 Abstract  preprint  journal  data
• “ Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting ”, Electoral Studies 41: 239-243 Abstract  preprint  journal
• “ Comparing Strategies for Estimating Constituency Opinion from National Survey Samples ”, Political Science Research and Methods. Abstract  preprint  journal  data

2015

• “Under-performing, Over-performing, or Just Performing? The Limitations of Fundamentals-based Presidential Election Forecasting”, International Journal of Forecasting, 31(3):965-979. Abstract  preprint  journal

2014

• “Scaling Meaningful Political Dimensions Using Texts and Votes”, American Journal of Political Science, 58(3)754-771. Abstract  preprint  journal  data
• “A Partisan Gap in the Supply of Female Potential Candidates”, Research & Politics, 1:1. Abstract  preprint  journal  data

2013

• “Does Inattention to Political Debate Explain the Polarization Gap Between the U.S. Congress and Public?”, Public Opinion Quarterly, 77(S):2-23. Abstract  preprint  journal

2012

• “The Supreme Court’s Many Median Justices”, American Political Science Review, 106(4):847-866. Abstract  preprint  journal  data
• “Compound Poisson-Gamma Regression Models for Dollar Outcomes That Are Sometimes Zero”, Political Analysis, 20(3):387-399. Abstract  preprint  journal  data
• “The Genealogy of Law”, Political Analysis, 20(3):329-350. Abstract  preprint  journal  data

2011

• “Distinguishing Between Influences on Brazilian Legislative Behavior”, Legislative Studies Quarterly, 36(3)363-396. Abstract  preprint  journal  data

2010

• “Locating Supreme Court Opinions in Doctrine Space”, American Journal of Political Science 54(4):871-890. Abstract  preprint  journal  data
• “Unpredictable Voters in Ideal Point Estimation”, Political Analysis 18(2):151-171. Abstract  preprint  journal

2008

• “Pass the Pork: Measuring Legislator Shares in Congress”, Political Analysis 16(3):235-249. Abstract  preprint  journal

2024

• “Idiosyncratic Issue Opinion and Political Choice”, forthcoming Oxford University Press, 2025 Abstract

2022

• “Pragmatic Social Measurement” Abstract  pdf

2018

• “Which outcome to the Article 50 process do the British people want?” Abstract  pdf

2017

• “Submission to House of Lords Select Committee on Political Polling and Digital Media” Abstract

2016

• “Report of the Inquiry into the 2015 British general election opinion polls”, London: Market Research Society and British Polling Council. Abstract  pdf  web

2021

• “The Emergence of Coherent Political Choices from Incomplete Issue Preferences” Abstract  pdf

2011

• “Legislator Characteristics, Constituency Characteristics, and Roll Call Voting” Abstract  pdf
• “Recovering Vote by Race in Primary Elections” Abstract  pdf

2007

• “Latent Versus Self-Reported Ideology” Abstract  pdf