Published Articles


  • “Can Citizens Guess How Other Citizens Voted Based on Demographic Characteristics?”, Political Science Research and Methods Abstract  pdf  journal  data
  • “Measuring Attitudes towards Public Spending using a Multivariate Tax Summary Experiment”, American Journal of Political Science Abstract  pdf  journal  data
  • “Republican-Majority Appellate Panels Increase Execution Rates for Capital Defendants”, Journal of Politics Abstract  pdf  journal  data



  • “Model-Based Pre-Election Polling for National and Sub-National Outcomes in the US and UK”, International Journal of Forecasting Abstract  pdf  journal



  • “An assessment of the causes of the errors in the 2015 UK general election opinion polls”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A Abstract
  • “Dyadic representation in a Westminster system”, Legislative Studies Quarterly, 42(2):235-267 Abstract  pdf  journal  data


  • “Who Controls Opinion Content? Testing Theories of Authorship using Case-Specific Preference Estimates for the US Supreme Court”, Journal of Politics 78(4):1153-1169. Abstract  pdf  journal  data
  • “Partisan Disagreements Arising from Rationalization of Common Information”, Political Science Research and Methods Abstract  pdf  journal  data
  • “Measuring Political Positions from Legislative Speech”, Political Analysis 24(3):374-394 Abstract  pdf  journal  data
  • “Crowd-Sourced Text Analysis”, American Political Science Review, 110(2):278-295. Abstract  pdf  journal  data
  • “Simulating Counterfactual Representation”, Political Analysis 24(2):281-290 Abstract  pdf  journal  data
  • “ Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting ”, Electoral Studies 41: 239-243 Abstract  pdf  journal
  • “ Comparing Strategies for Estimating Constituency Opinion from National Survey Samples ”, Political Science Research and Methods. Abstract  pdf  journal  data


  • “Under-performing, Over-performing, or Just Performing? The Limitations of Fundamentals-based Presidential Election Forecasting”, International Journal of Forecasting, 31(3):965-979. Abstract  pdf  journal


  • “Scaling Meaningful Political Dimensions Using Texts and Votes”, American Journal of Political Science, 58(3)754-771. Abstract  pdf  journal  data
  • “A Partisan Gap in the Supply of Female Potential Candidates”, Research & Politics, 1:1. Abstract  pdf  journal  data


  • “Does Inattention to Political Debate Explain the Polarization Gap Between the U.S. Congress and Public?”, Public Opinion Quarterly, 77(S):2-23. Abstract  pdf  journal



  • “Distinguishing Between Influences on Brazilian Legislative Behavior”, Legislative Studies Quarterly, 36(3)363-396. Abstract  pdf  journal  data


  • “Locating Supreme Court Opinions in Doctrine Space”, American Journal of Political Science 54(4):871-890. Abstract  pdf  journal  data
  • “Unpredictable Voters in Ideal Point Estimation”, Political Analysis 18(2):151-171. Abstract  pdf  journal


  • “Pass the Pork: Measuring Legislator Shares in Congress”, Political Analysis 16(3):235-249. Abstract  pdf  journal

Working Papers


  • “The Emergence of Coherent Political Choices from Incomplete Issue Preferences” Abstract  pdf
  • “Pairwise Comparisons as a Scale Development Tool for Composite Measures” Abstract  pdf
  • “The Variable Persuasiveness of Political Rhetoric ”, conditionally accepted American Journal of Political Science Abstract  pdf


  • “Inferring Individual Preferences from Group Decisions: Judicial Preference Variation and Aggregation in Asylum Appeals” Abstract  pdf



  • “Which outcome to the Article 50 process do the British people want?” Abstract  pdf


  • “Submission to House of Lords Select Committee on Political Polling and Digital Media” Abstract


  • “Report of the Inquiry into the 2015 British general election opinion polls”, London: Market Research Society and British Polling Council. Abstract  pdf  web

Retired Papers


  • “Legislator Characteristics, Constituency Characteristics, and Roll Call Voting” Abstract  pdf
  • “Recovering Vote by Race in Primary Elections” Abstract  pdf